Fair Share Estimate #4 – REAL POPULATION DENSITY
The chart provides one way to estimate what is fair when the
nations of the world try to figure out how to help Syrian refugees. How many
should go where? This is NOT A POLICY PROPOSAL! This is a sketch to help think.
It’s simply a list of the 25 largest nations, the 25 nations
with the most arable land, and the 25 nations with the largest populations. It
gives the REAL POPULATION DENSITY of each nation as of 2014 (CIA World
Factbook).
“Real population density” requires a little effort to
understand. But consider Antarctica. There aren’t a lot of people at the South
Pole. In 2005, there was the largest crowd ever wintering over there: 86
people! With five million square miles to share, that’s over 50,000 square
miles apiece. But there’s not a lot of food, not a lot of shelter, not much
light for months. So everybody was hanging out at one dinky little station, and
it was crowded.
“Real population density,” also called “physiological
density,” refers to the population on the arable land. Population is not a
useful measure by itself; nor is land by itself; nor is arable land by itself.
But real population density is an effort to put these factors together. The
measurement has an awful history; it is used in population control
presentations all the time. So if you use it, use it carefully.
There are two charts below. The first chart below shows the
real population density of 43 nations (the largest, the most populous, and
those with the most arable land). Real population density is population divided
by arable land. The chart shows population, arable land, real population
density, and real density as a percentage of the global average. The final
column is “capacity,” the theoretical population of that nation is the real
population density matched the global average (arable land X the global average
of 463).
|
# by size
|
Nation
|
arable
|
population
|
Real density
|
% of average
|
capacity
|
|
3
|
USA
|
1,650,062
|
321,368,864
|
195
|
42.1%
|
763,978,706
|
|
7
|
INDIA
|
1,451,810
|
1,251,695,584
|
862
|
186.2%
|
672,188,030
|
|
4
|
CHINA
|
1,385,905
|
1,367,485,388
|
987
|
213.1%
|
641,674,015
|
|
1
|
RUSSIA
|
1,174,284
|
142,423,773
|
121
|
26.2%
|
543,693,492
|
|
5
|
BRAZIL
|
586,036
|
204,259,812
|
349
|
75.3%
|
271,334,668
|
|
6
|
AUSTRALIA
|
468,503
|
22,751,014
|
49
|
10.5%
|
216,916,889
|
|
2
|
CANADA
|
415,573
|
35,099,836
|
84
|
18.2%
|
192,410,299
|
|
46
|
UKRAINE
|
324,791
|
44,429,471
|
137
|
29.5%
|
150,378,233
|
|
32
|
NIGERIA
|
300,736
|
181,562,056
|
604
|
130.4%
|
139,240,768
|
|
8
|
ARGENTINA
|
274,490
|
43,431,886
|
158
|
34.2%
|
127,088,870
|
|
14
|
MEXICO
|
243,457
|
121,736,809
|
500
|
108.0%
|
112,720,591
|
|
37
|
TURKEY
|
229,764
|
79,414,269
|
346
|
74.7%
|
106,380,732
|
|
9
|
KAZAKHSTAN
|
221,059
|
18,157,122
|
82
|
17.7%
|
102,350,317
|
|
43
|
FRANCE
|
214,162
|
66,553,766
|
311
|
67.1%
|
99,157,006
|
|
15
|
INDONESIA
|
201,456
|
255,993,674
|
1271
|
274.5%
|
93,274,128
|
|
18
|
IRAN
|
195,600
|
81,824,270
|
418
|
90.4%
|
90,562,800
|
|
36
|
PAKISTAN
|
190,319
|
199,085,847
|
1046
|
225.9%
|
88,117,697
|
|
25
|
SOUTH AFRICA
|
147,609
|
53,675,563
|
364
|
78.5%
|
68,342,967
|
|
22
|
NIGER
|
144,784
|
18,045,729
|
125
|
26.9%
|
67,034,992
|
|
51
|
THAILAND
|
140,941
|
67,976,405
|
482
|
104.2%
|
65,255,683
|
|
52
|
SPAIN
|
135,776
|
48,146,134
|
355
|
76.6%
|
62,864,288
|
|
16
|
SUDAN
|
135,600
|
36,108,853
|
266
|
57.5%
|
62,782,800
|
|
70
|
POLAND
|
122,545
|
38,562,189
|
315
|
68.0%
|
56,738,335
|
|
63
|
GERMANY
|
115,698
|
80,854,408
|
699
|
150.9%
|
53,568,174
|
|
27
|
ETHIOPIA
|
112,080
|
99,465,819
|
887
|
191.7%
|
51,893,040
|
|
40
|
BURMA
|
98,135
|
56,320,206
|
574
|
124.0%
|
45,436,505
|
|
72
|
ITALY
|
77,651
|
61,855,120
|
797
|
172.0%
|
35,952,413
|
|
95
|
BANGLADESH
|
75,690
|
168,957,745
|
2232
|
482.1%
|
35,044,470
|
|
10
|
ALGERIA
|
75,501
|
39,542,166
|
524
|
113.1%
|
34,956,963
|
|
66
|
VIETNAM
|
65,528
|
94,348,835
|
1440
|
311.0%
|
30,339,464
|
|
11
|
CONGO, DR
|
64,853
|
79,375,136
|
1224
|
264.3%
|
30,026,939
|
|
73
|
PHILIPPINES
|
56,652
|
100,998,376
|
1783
|
385.1%
|
26,229,876
|
|
80
|
United Kingdom
|
56,121
|
64,088,222
|
1142
|
246.6%
|
25,984,023
|
|
62
|
JAPAN
|
43,620
|
126,919,659
|
2910
|
628.4%
|
20,196,060
|
|
24
|
MALI
|
37,600
|
16,955,536
|
451
|
97.4%
|
17,408,800
|
|
13
|
Saudi Arabia
|
35,900
|
27,752,316
|
773
|
167.0%
|
16,621,700
|
|
21
|
CHAD
|
35,258
|
11,631,456
|
330
|
71.3%
|
16,324,454
|
|
23
|
ANGOLA
|
33,038
|
19,625,353
|
594
|
128.3%
|
15,296,594
|
|
30
|
EGYPT
|
29,067
|
88,487,396
|
3044
|
657.5%
|
13,458,021
|
|
20
|
PERU
|
28,800
|
30,444,999
|
1057
|
228.3%
|
13,334,400
|
|
17
|
LIBYA
|
18,123
|
6,411,776
|
354
|
76.4%
|
8,390,949
|
|
19
|
MONGOLIA
|
11,816
|
2,992,908
|
253
|
54.7%
|
5,470,808
|
|
12
|
GREENLAND
|
10
|
57,733
|
5773
|
1246.9%
|
4,630
|
