Fair Share Estimate #2 – POPULATION only
The chart provides one way to estimate what is fair when the
nations of the world try to figure out how to help Syrian refugees. How many
should go where? This is NOT A POLICY PROPOSAL! This is a sketch to help think.
It’s simply a list of the 25 largest nations, the 25 nations
with the most arable land, and the 25 nations with the largest populations. It
gives the population of each nation as of 2015 (CIA World Factbook). It
calculates what percentage of the world’s population that nation has (divide by
7.3 billion, the world total). Then it provides an estimated “fair share”
(multiplying the percentage times the number of Syrian refugees at the end of
2015, about 4 million).
This is a seriously flawed method. If you go by population only,
China, which is often considered crowded, should take three quarters of a
million refugees. India, also crowded, should take two thirds of a million.
Australia, which is pretty empty, should take about 12,000. This will not work
as a way to find justice.
In this (flawed) sketch, the fair share for the USA would be
about 175,000.
|
# by size
|
nation
|
population
|
% of pop
|
fair share
|
|
4
|
CHINA
|
1,367,485,388
|
18.7%
|
749,307
|
|
7
|
INDIA
|
1,251,695,584
|
17.1%
|
685,861
|
|
3
|
USA
|
321,368,864
|
4.4%
|
176,093
|
|
15
|
INDONESIA
|
255,993,674
|
3.5%
|
140,271
|
|
5
|
BRAZIL
|
204,259,812
|
2.8%
|
111,923
|
|
36
|
PAKISTAN
|
199,085,847
|
2.7%
|
109,088
|
|
32
|
NIGERIA
|
181,562,056
|
2.5%
|
99,486
|
|
95
|
BANGLADESH
|
168,957,745
|
2.3%
|
92,580
|
|
1
|
RUSSIA
|
142,423,773
|
2.0%
|
78,040
|
|
62
|
JAPAN
|
126,919,659
|
1.7%
|
69,545
|
|
14
|
MEXICO
|
121,736,809
|
1.7%
|
66,705
|
|
73
|
PHILIPPINES
|
100,998,376
|
1.4%
|
55,342
|
|
27
|
ETHIOPIA
|
99,465,819
|
1.4%
|
54,502
|
|
66
|
VIETNAM
|
94,348,835
|
1.3%
|
51,698
|
|
30
|
EGYPT
|
88,487,396
|
1.2%
|
48,486
|
|
18
|
IRAN
|
81,824,270
|
1.1%
|
44,835
|
|
63
|
GERMANY
|
80,854,408
|
1.1%
|
44,304
|
|
37
|
TURKEY
|
79,414,269
|
1.1%
|
43,515
|
|
11
|
CONGO, DR
|
79,375,136
|
1.1%
|
43,493
|
|
51
|
THAILAND
|
67,976,405
|
0.9%
|
37,247
|
|
43
|
FRANCE
|
66,553,766
|
0.9%
|
36,468
|
|
80
|
UNITED KINGDOM
|
64,088,222
|
0.9%
|
35,117
|
|
72
|
ITALY
|
61,855,120
|
0.8%
|
33,893
|
|
40
|
BURMA
|
56,320,206
|
0.8%
|
30,860
|
|
25
|
SOUTH AFRICA
|
53,675,563
|
0.7%
|
29,411
|
|
52
|
SPAIN
|
48,146,134
|
0.7%
|
26,381
|
|
46
|
UKRAINE
|
44,429,471
|
0.6%
|
24,345
|
|
8
|
ARGENTINA
|
43,431,886
|
0.6%
|
23,798
|
|
10
|
ALGERIA
|
39,542,166
|
0.5%
|
21,667
|
|
70
|
POLAND
|
38,562,189
|
0.5%
|
21,130
|
|
16
|
SUDAN
|
36,108,853
|
0.5%
|
19,786
|
|
2
|
CANADA
|
35,099,836
|
0.5%
|
19,233
|
|
20
|
PERU
|
30,444,999
|
0.4%
|
16,682
|
|
13
|
Saudi Arabia
|
27,752,316
|
0.4%
|
15,207
|
|
6
|
AUSTRALIA
|
22,751,014
|
0.3%
|
12,466
|
|
23
|
ANGOLA
|
19,625,353
|
0.3%
|
10,754
|
|
9
|
KAZAKHSTAN
|
18,157,122
|
0.2%
|
9,949
|
|
22
|
NIGER
|
18,045,729
|
0.2%
|
9,888
|
|
24
|
MALI
|
16,955,536
|
0.2%
|
9,291
|
|
21
|
CHAD
|
11,631,456
|
0.2%
|
6,373
|
|
17
|
LIBYA
|
6,411,776
|
0.1%
|
3,513
|
|
19
|
MONGOLIA
|
2,992,908
|
0.0%
|
1,640
|
|
12
|
GREENLAND
|
57,733
|
0.0%
|
32
|
