Fair Share Estimate #3 – ARABLE LAND only
The chart provides one way to estimate what is fair when the
nations of the world try to figure out how to help Syrian refugees. How many
should go where? This is NOT A POLICY PROPOSAL! This is a sketch to help think.
It’s simply a list of the 25 largest nations, the 25 nations
with the most arable land, and the 25 nations with the largest populations. It
gives the arable land of each nation as of 2014 (CIA World Factbook, charted
conveniently in Wikipedia). It calculates what percentage of the world’s arable
land that nation has (divide by 15,750,000 square kilometers, the world total).
Then it provides an estimated “fair share” (multiplying the percentage times
the number of Syrian refugees at the end of 2015, about 4 million).
“Arable land” is a slippery idea. The term is useful to the
FAO (the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN). It refers to land that
is being used for agriculture. It excludes deep deserts, steep mountainsides,
and frozen tundra, giving some measure of land usable for human habitation. But
it also roads and urban areas – which is a nuisance. Further, it does not
include land that could be used for agriculture (war zones in Sudan, wildlife habitat
all over southern Africa). Should it include deforested land in the Amazon
basin? Despite the flaws, it gives some hints of what’s out there.
(The CIA World Factbook says that Greenland has 0 arable
land. I assigned it 10, so my charts wouldn’t go nuts.)
This is a flawed method. If you go by arable land only, China
and India are near the top. Japan is supposed to take more than Egypt. But Greenland
looks about right.
In this (flawed) sketch, the fair share for the USA would be
over 400,000.
|
# by size
|
Nation
|
Arable
|
% of total
|
fair share
|
|
3
|
USA
|
1,650,062
|
10.5%
|
419,063
|
|
7
|
INDIA
|
1,451,810
|
9.2%
|
368,714
|
|
4
|
CHINA
|
1,385,905
|
8.8%
|
351,976
|
|
1
|
RUSSIA
|
1,174,284
|
7.5%
|
298,231
|
|
5
|
BRAZIL
|
586,036
|
3.7%
|
148,835
|
|
6
|
AUSTRALIA
|
468,503
|
3.0%
|
118,985
|
|
2
|
CANADA
|
415,573
|
2.6%
|
105,542
|
|
46
|
UKRAINE
|
324,791
|
2.1%
|
82,487
|
|
32
|
NIGERIA
|
300,736
|
1.9%
|
76,377
|
|
8
|
ARGENTINA
|
274,490
|
1.7%
|
69,712
|
|
14
|
MEXICO
|
243,457
|
1.5%
|
61,830
|
|
37
|
TURKEY
|
229,764
|
1.5%
|
58,353
|
|
9
|
KAZAKHSTAN
|
221,059
|
1.4%
|
56,142
|
|
43
|
FRANCE
|
214,162
|
1.4%
|
54,390
|
|
15
|
INDONESIA
|
201,456
|
1.3%
|
51,163
|
|
18
|
IRAN
|
195,600
|
1.2%
|
49,676
|
|
36
|
PAKISTAN
|
190,319
|
1.2%
|
48,335
|
|
25
|
SOUTH AFRICA
|
147,609
|
0.9%
|
37,488
|
|
22
|
NIGER
|
144,784
|
0.9%
|
36,771
|
|
51
|
THAILAND
|
140,941
|
0.9%
|
35,795
|
|
52
|
SPAIN
|
135,776
|
0.9%
|
34,483
|
|
16
|
SUDAN
|
135,600
|
0.9%
|
34,438
|
|
70
|
POLAND
|
122,545
|
0.8%
|
31,123
|
|
63
|
GERMANY
|
115,698
|
0.7%
|
29,384
|
|
27
|
ETHIOPIA
|
112,080
|
0.7%
|
28,465
|
|
40
|
BURMA
|
98,135
|
0.6%
|
24,923
|
|
72
|
ITALY
|
77,651
|
0.5%
|
19,721
|
|
95
|
BANGLADESH
|
75,690
|
0.5%
|
19,223
|
|
10
|
ALGERIA
|
75,501
|
0.5%
|
19,175
|
|
66
|
VIETNAM
|
65,528
|
0.4%
|
16,642
|
|
11
|
CONGO, DR
|
64,853
|
0.4%
|
16,471
|
|
73
|
PHILIPPINES
|
56,652
|
0.4%
|
14,388
|
|
80
|
United Kingdom
|
56,121
|
0.4%
|
14,253
|
|
62
|
JAPAN
|
43,620
|
0.3%
|
11,078
|
|
24
|
MALI
|
37,600
|
0.2%
|
9,549
|
|
13
|
Saudi Arabia
|
35,900
|
0.2%
|
9,117
|
|
21
|
CHAD
|
35,258
|
0.2%
|
8,954
|
|
23
|
ANGOLA
|
33,038
|
0.2%
|
8,391
|
|
30
|
EGYPT
|
29,067
|
0.2%
|
7,382
|
|
20
|
PERU
|
28,800
|
0.2%
|
7,314
|
|
17
|
LIBYA
|
18,123
|
0.1%
|
4,603
|
|
19
|
MONGOLIA
|
11,816
|
0.1%
|
3,001
|
|
12
|
GREENLAND
|
10
|
0.0%
|
3
|