Estimating fair share – LAND only
The chart provides one way to estimate what is fair when the
nations of the world try to figure out how to help Syrian refugees. How many
should go where? This is NOT A POLICY PROPOSAL! This is a sketch to help think.
It’s simply a list of the 25 largest nations, the 25 nations
with the most arable land, and the 25 nations with the largest populations. It
gives the area of each nation in square kilometers as of 2015 (CIA World
Factbook). It calculates what percentage of the world’s land that nation has
(divide by 149 million, the world total). Then it provides an estimated “fair
share” (multiplying the percentage times the number of Syrian refugees at the
end of 2015, about 4 million).
This is a seriously flawed method. If you go by land only,
Canada should take more refugees than the USA. Greenland should take a little
more than its current population. Germany should take 10,000, and Mongolia
should take four times as much as Germany. This will not work as a way to find
justice.
In this (flawed) sketch, the fair share for the USA would be
about 250,000.
# by size
|
Nation
|
area
|
% of total
|
fair share
|
|
1
|
RUSSIA
|
17,098,242
|
11.5%
|
459,013
|
|
2
|
CANADA
|
9,984,670
|
6.7%
|
268,045
|
|
3
|
USA
|
9,826,675
|
6.6%
|
263,803
|
|
4
|
CHINA
|
9,596,960
|
6.4%
|
257,637
|
|
5
|
BRAZIL
|
8,514,877
|
5.7%
|
228,587
|
|
6
|
AUSTRALIA
|
7,741,220
|
5.2%
|
207,818
|
|
7
|
INDIA
|
3,287,263
|
2.2%
|
88,249
|
|
8
|
ARGENTINA
|
2,780,400
|
1.9%
|
74,642
|
|
9
|
KAZAKHSTAN
|
2,724,900
|
1.8%
|
73,152
|
|
10
|
ALGERIA
|
2,381,741
|
1.6%
|
63,939
|
|
11
|
CONGO, DR
|
2,344,858
|
1.6%
|
62,949
|
|
12
|
GREENLAND
|
2,166,086
|
1.5%
|
58,150
|
|
13
|
Saudi Arabia
|
2,149,690
|
1.4%
|
57,710
|
|
14
|
MEXICO
|
1,964,375
|
1.3%
|
52,735
|
|
15
|
INDONESIA
|
1,904,569
|
1.3%
|
51,129
|
|
16
|
SUDAN
|
1,861,484
|
1.2%
|
49,973
|
|
17
|
LIBYA
|
1,759,540
|
1.2%
|
47,236
|
|
18
|
IRAN
|
1,648,195
|
1.1%
|
44,247
|
|
19
|
MONGOLIA
|
1,564,116
|
1.0%
|
41,990
|
|
20
|
PERU
|
1,285,216
|
0.9%
|
34,502
|
|
21
|
CHAD
|
1,284,000
|
0.9%
|
34,470
|
|
22
|
NIGER
|
1,267,000
|
0.9%
|
34,013
|
|
23
|
ANGOLA
|
1,246,700
|
0.8%
|
33,468
|
|
24
|
MALI
|
1,240,192
|
0.8%
|
33,294
|
|
25
|
SOUTH AFRICA
|
1,219,090
|
0.8%
|
32,727
|
|
27
|
ETHIOPIA
|
1,104,300
|
0.7%
|
29,646
|
|
30
|
EGYPT
|
1,001,450
|
0.7%
|
26,885
|
|
32
|
NIGERIA
|
923,768
|
0.6%
|
24,799
|
|
36
|
PAKISTAN
|
796,095
|
0.5%
|
21,372
|
|
37
|
TURKEY
|
783,562
|
0.5%
|
21,035
|
|
40
|
BURMA
|
676,578
|
0.5%
|
18,163
|
|
43
|
FRANCE
|
643,801
|
0.4%
|
17,283
|
|
46
|
UKRAINE
|
603,550
|
0.4%
|
16,203
|
|
51
|
THAILAND
|
513,120
|
0.3%
|
13,775
|
|
52
|
SPAIN
|
505,370
|
0.3%
|
13,567
|
|
62
|
JAPAN
|
377,915
|
0.3%
|
10,145
|
|
63
|
GERMANY
|
357,022
|
0.2%
|
9,584
|
|
66
|
VIETNAM
|
331,210
|
0.2%
|
8,892
|
|
70
|
POLAND
|
312,685
|
0.2%
|
8,394
|
|
72
|
ITALY
|
301,340
|
0.2%
|
8,090
|
|
73
|
PHILIPPINES
|
300,000
|
0.2%
|
8,054
|
|
80
|
United Kingdom
|
243,610
|
0.2%
|
6,540
|
|
95
|
BANGLADESH
|
143,998
|
0.1%
|
3,866
|
|