Fair Share Estimate #5 – “EMPTY BEDS”
The last chart aims for an estimate of “empty beds” (not a
technical term).
The world’s average density is 463 people per arable square
mile. Suppose, just to get a sense of what seems fair, we imagine schmearing the
people in the world evenly throughout the arable land. (DO NOT TRY THIS! THIS
IS A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT!) How many people would have to move to get from
crowded spots to the world average density? And – the real question – how many
people would move, and to where, to fill the sparsely populated land up to the
global average?
Maybe we don’t want the whole world to have the same
population density! Skip the maybe; we don’t. But if you estimate how many
people it would take to move a relatively empty nation up to the global
average, you get a measurement that may help provide numbers for a pursuit of a
just immigration policy.
The chart lists 43 nations (the 25 largest by area, the 25
most populous, and the 25 with the most arable land).
The next column gives the population for each nation.
The third column has estimates for the “capacity” of each
nation. For each nation, if the real population density of the nation were
equal to the global average, what would the population be? (Calculated in the previous chart, “fair
share estimates #4 – capacity.”)
The fourth column estimates “empty beds.” That’s not a
technical term. It’s the difference between the nation’s capacity and its
actual population.
The fifth column shows empty beds in each nation as a percentage
of the global total (about 1.8 billion). This percentage gives a reasonable
estimate of just figures for how to divide the burdens of relocation in a
global migration like the Syrian refugee crisis.
The final column applies the % of empty beds to the four
million Syrian refugees.
According to this reasonable sketch, the fair share of four
million Syrian refugees for the USA would be a little under a million.
|
# by size
|
Nation
|
population
|
capacity
|
"empty beds"
|
% empty beds
|
fair share
|
|
3
|
USA
|
321,368,864
|
763,978,706.00
|
442,609,842
|
24.6%
|
983,577
|
|
1
|
RUSSIA
|
142,423,773
|
543,693,492.00
|
401,269,719
|
22.3%
|
891,710
|
|
6
|
AUSTRALIA
|
22,751,014
|
216,916,889.00
|
194,165,875
|
10.8%
|
431,480
|
|
2
|
CANADA
|
35,099,836
|
192,410,299.00
|
157,310,463
|
8.7%
|
349,579
|
|
46
|
UKRAINE
|
44,429,471
|
150,378,233.00
|
105,948,762
|
5.9%
|
235,442
|
|
9
|
KAZAKHSTAN
|
18,157,122
|
102,350,317.00
|
84,193,195
|
4.7%
|
187,096
|
|
8
|
ARGENTINA
|
43,431,886
|
127,088,870.00
|
83,656,984
|
4.6%
|
185,904
|
|
5
|
BRAZIL
|
204,259,812
|
271,334,668.00
|
67,074,856
|
3.7%
|
149,055
|
|
22
|
NIGER
|
18,045,729
|
67,034,992.00
|
48,989,263
|
2.7%
|
108,865
|
|
43
|
FRANCE
|
66,553,766
|
99,157,006.00
|
32,603,240
|
1.8%
|
72,452
|
|
37
|
TURKEY
|
79,414,269
|
106,380,732.00
|
26,966,463
|
1.5%
|
59,925
|
|
16
|
SUDAN
|
36,108,853
|
62,782,800.00
|
26,673,947
|
1.5%
|
59,275
|
|
70
|
POLAND
|
38,562,189
|
56,738,335.00
|
18,176,146
|
1.0%
|
40,391
|
|
52
|
SPAIN
|
48,146,134
|
62,864,288.00
|
14,718,154
|
0.8%
|
32,707
|
|
25
|
SOUTH AFRICA
|
53,675,563
|
68,342,967.00
|
14,667,404
|
0.8%
|
32,594
|
|
18
|
IRAN
|
81,824,270
|
90,562,800.00
|
8,738,530
|
0.5%
|
19,419
|
|
21
|
CHAD
|
11,631,456
|
16,324,454.00
|
4,692,998
|
0.3%
|
10,429
|
|
19
|
MONGOLIA
|
2,992,908
|
5,470,808.00
|
2,477,900
|
0.1%
|
5,506
|
|
17
|
LIBYA
|
6,411,776
|
8,390,949.00
|
1,979,173
|
0.1%
|
4,398
|
|
24
|
MALI
|
16,955,536
|
17,408,800.00
|
453,264
|
0.0%
|
1,007
|
|
12
|
GREENLAND
|
57,733
|
4,630.00
|
(53,103)
|
0.0%
|
(118)
|
|
51
|
THAILAND
|
67,976,405
|
65,255,683.00
|
(2,720,722)
|
-0.2%
|
(6,046)
|
|
23
|
ANGOLA
|
19,625,353
|
15,296,594.00
|
(4,328,759)
|
-0.2%
|
(9,619)
|
|
10
|
ALGERIA
|
39,542,166
|
34,956,963.00
|
(4,585,203)
|
-0.3%
|
(10,189)
|
|
14
|
MEXICO
|
121,736,809
|
112,720,591.00
|
(9,016,218)
|
-0.5%
|
(20,036)
|
|
40
|
BURMA
|
56,320,206
|
45,436,505.00
|
(10,883,701.00)
|
-0.6%
|
(24,186)
|
|
13
|
Saudi Arabia
|
27,752,316
|
16,621,700.00
|
(11,130,616)
|
-0.6%
|
(24,735)
|
|
20
|
PERU
|
30,444,999
|
13,334,400.00
|
(17,110,599)
|
-1.0%
|
(38,024)
|
|
72
|
ITALY
|
61,855,120
|
35,952,413.00
|
(25,902,707.00)
|
-1.4%
|
(57,562)
|
|
63
|
GERMANY
|
80,854,408
|
53,568,174.00
|
(27,286,234)
|
-1.5%
|
(60,636)
|
|
80
|
United Kingdom
|
64,088,222
|
25,984,023.00
|
(38,104,199.00)
|
-2.1%
|
(84,676)
|
|
32
|
NIGERIA
|
181,562,056
|
139,240,768.00
|
(42,321,288)
|
-2.4%
|
(94,047)
|
|
27
|
ETHIOPIA
|
99,465,819
|
51,893,040.00
|
(47,572,779)
|
-2.6%
|
(105,717)
|
|
11
|
CONGO, DR
|
79,375,136
|
30,026,939.00
|
(49,348,197)
|
-2.7%
|
(109,663)
|
|
66
|
VIETNAM
|
94,348,835
|
30,339,464.00
|
(64,009,371.00)
|
-3.6%
|
(142,243)
|
|
73
|
PHILIPPINES
|
100,998,376
|
26,229,876.00
|
(74,768,500.00)
|
-4.2%
|
(166,152)
|
|
30
|
EGYPT
|
88,487,396
|
13,458,021.00
|
(75,029,375.00)
|
-4.2%
|
(166,732)
|
|
62
|
JAPAN
|
126,919,659
|
20,196,060.00
|
(106,723,599)
|
-5.9%
|
(237,164)
|
|
36
|
PAKISTAN
|
199,085,847
|
88,117,697.00
|
(110,968,150)
|
-6.2%
|
(246,596)
|
|
95
|
BANGLADESH
|
168,957,745
|
35,044,470.00
|
(133,913,275)
|
-7.4%
|
(297,585)
|
|
15
|
INDONESIA
|
255,993,674
|
93,274,128.00
|
(162,719,546)
|
-9.0%
|
(361,599)
|
|
7
|
INDIA
|
1,251,695,584
|
672,188,030.00
|
(579,507,554)
|
-32.2%
|
(1,287,795)
|
|
4
|
CHINA
|
1,367,485,388
|
641,674,015.00
|
(725,811,373)
|
-40.3%
|
(1,612,914)
|
